There can be a lot of hyperbole about economic performance since the Great Depression. While the NBER dating of business cycles is considered “official,” two other interpretations are offered here. Despite the hyperbole, none of the post-World War II economic contractions have come close in either length or severity to the 1929-1933 (15 calendar quarters) contraction of 26.3% in real GDP. The longest recession since 1933 lasted between four and seven quarters, depending on the definition used, and saw a contraction of just over 4%.
| Recession Begin Month | Recession Beqin Quarter | Recession End Month | Recession End Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Source: National Bureau of Economic Research | |||
| August 1929 | 1929 Q3 | March 1933 | 1933 Q1 |
| May 1937 | 1937 Q2 | June 1938 | 1938 Q2 |
| February 1945 | 1945 Q1 | October 1945 | 1945 Q4 |
| November 1948 | 1948 Q4 | October 1949 | 1949 Q4 |
| July 1953 | 1953 Q2 | May 1954 | 1954 Q2 |
| August 1957 | 1957 Q3 | April 1958 | 1958 Q2 |
| April 1960 | 1960 Q2 | February 1961 | 1961 Q1 |
| December 1969 | 1969 Q4 | November 1970 | 1970 Q4 |
| November 1973 | 1973 Q4 | March 1975 | 1975 Q1 |
| January 1980 | 1980 Q1 | July 1980 | 1980 Q3 |
| July 1981 | 1981 Q3 | November 1982 | 1982 Q4 |
| July 1990 | 1990 Q3 | March 1991 | 1991 Q1 |
| March 2001 | 2001 Q1 | November 2001 | 2001 Q4 |
| December 2007 | 2007 Q4 | June 2009 | 2009 Q2 |
The following tables are based on Gross Domestic Product Data available here.
Definitions for the tables below:
Recession Period: The number of quarters of economic decline. In other words, how long was the economy getting worse?
Contraction Severity: The percentage change in Gross Domestic Product during the recession.
Recovery Period: The number of quarters between the last quarter of recession and the first quarter in which Gross Domestic Product at least equals the GDP from the quarter before th recession started. In other words, how long it took to recover from the damage of the recession.
Growth Period: The number of quarters between the end of the recovery period and the beginning of the next recession. In other words, for how long were we moving ahead economically?
| Recession Begin | Recession End | Recession Period | Contraction Severity | Recovery Period | Growth Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The simple textbook definition of a recession is a period of two or more consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. Under this definition, a recession is over as soon as there is a positive quarter of economic growth. |
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| 1947 Q2 | 1947 Q3 | 2 | -0.2% | 1 | 4 |
| 1949 Q1 | 1949 Q2 | 2 | -1.5% | 3 | 13 |
| 1953 Q3 | 1954 Q1 | 3 | -2.6% | 3 | 11 |
| 1957 Q4 | 1958 Q1 | 2 | -2.6% | 3 | 43 |
| 1969 Q4 | 1970 Q1 | 2 | -0.6% | 2 | 15 |
| 1974 Q3 | 1975 Q1 | 3 | -2.5% | 3 | 17 |
| 1980 Q2 | 1980 Q3 | 2 | -2.1% | 2 | 2 |
| 1981 Q4 | 1982 Q1 | 2 | -2.8% | 3 | 30 |
| 1990 Q4 | 1991 Q1 | 2 | -1.3% | 3 | 66 |
| 2008 Q3 | 2009 Q2 | 4 | -4.1% | 8 | 19 (ongoing) |
| Recession Begin | Recession End | Recession Period | Contraction Severity | Recovery Period | Growth Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| We apply the textbook definition of a recession with two additional conditions: (1) To be a recession, there must be a contraction of at least 1% of GDP; (2) for a recession to end, there must be a complete recovery period before the next recession; otherwise, we consider it a single “double-dip” recession. |
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| 1949 Q1 | 1949 Q4 | 4 | -1.5% | 1 | 14 |
| 1953 Q3 | 1954 Q1 | 3 | -2.6% | 3 | 11 |
| 1957 Q4 | 1958 Q1 | 2 | -2.6% | 3 | 62 |
| 1974 Q3 | 1975 Q1 | 3 | -2.5% | 3 | 17 |
| 1980 Q2 | 1980 Q3 | 2 | -2.1% | 2 | 2 |
| 1981 Q4 | 1982 Q1 | 2 | -2.8% | 3 | 30 |
| 1990 Q4 | 1991 Q1 | 2 | -1.3% | 3 | 66 |
| 2008 Q1 | 2009 Q2 | 6 | -4.1% | 9 | 18 (ongoing) |
Last Updated July 16, 2016.